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21世纪海上丝绸之路战略的提出为沿线国家和地区旅游业的发展带来了新机遇,注入了新活力。本文以1996年至2014年广西经济增长和旅游收入等数据为依据,通过回归分析、高阶广义差分分析、ADF检验和Granger因果检验,定量分析旅游业发展对经济增长带来的影响。结果表明:广西旅游业在短期内对经济增长具有显著的拉动效应,但影响的持续性较短。旅游业是广西融入海上丝绸之路战略的最佳切入点,广西应当抓住机遇,深化旅游业开放合作,推动旅游业与相关产业的跨界融合,增强旅游业对经济增长的持续作用。
The proposal of 21st Century Maritime Silk Road brings new opportunities and new vitality to the tourism development in countries and regions along the line. Based on the data of Guangxi’s economic growth and tourism revenue from 1996 to 2014, this paper quantitatively analyzes the impact of tourism development on economic growth through regression analysis, high-order generalized difference analysis, ADF test and Granger causality test. The results show that tourism in Guangxi has a significant pulling effect on economic growth in a short period of time, but its sustainability is relatively short. Tourism is the best entry point for Guangxi to integrate into the maritime Silk Road strategy. Guangxi should seize the opportunity to deepen the opening up and cooperation in tourism, promote the cross-border integration of tourism and related industries, and enhance the sustained effect of tourism on economic growth.