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基于汾河和沁河入黄站的实测径流序列和降雨序列资料,采用滑动分析法、Kendall秩次相关检验法、Spearman秩次相关检验法分析了序列的变化趋势及趋势的显著性,并在此基础上采用滑动t检验、M-K检验、累积距平法、聚类分析法分别检验了序列的突变点。结果表明,河津站、武陟站的实测径流呈显著减少的趋势,降雨减少趋势不显著;河津站、武陟站实测径流的突变点分别出现于1970、1964年,两站的降雨均未发生突变;汾河和沁河径流的减少直接受气候变化的影响,同时人类活动也有至关重要的影响作用。
Based on the measured runoff series and rainfall series data of Fenhe River and Qinhe Yellow River Station, the trend of trend and the significance of the trend were analyzed by using sliding analysis, Kendall rank correlation test and Spearman rank correlation test. On the basis of sliding t-test, MK test, cumulative distance method, clustering analysis of the sequence of mutation points. The results show that the measured runoff at Hejin Station and Wutai Station shows a significant decrease trend, and the trend of rainfall reduction is not significant. The change points of measured runoff at Hejin Station and Wutai Station occurred in 1970 and 1964, respectively, and no rainfall occurred at the two stations Mutation; the reduction of Fenhe River and Qinhe River runoff is directly affected by climate change, and human activities also have a crucial impact.