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随着财政分权程度的提高,政府竞争行为特征会发生系统性变化,进而改变政府竞争对我国出口的影响机制,使其呈现出非线性特征。在构建2002-2014年30个省份的面板数据后,利用面板门槛模型的实证分析发现:财政分权存在双重门槛,由此可以被划分财政分权的低、中、高三阶段。静态和动态面板模型的估计结果表明:在低财政分权阶段,政府竞争加强会阻碍出口增长;在中、高财政分权阶段,政府竞争加强都将促进出口增长,但在高财政分权阶段,这种促进作用会弱化。这为理解我国入世以后出口高速增长和近年出口增速下滑的完整变化过程提供了一种新的制度因素解释。
As the degree of fiscal decentralization increases, the characteristics of the government’s competitive behavior will undergo systematic changes, which will in turn change the mechanism of the impact of government competition on China’s exports and make them exhibit nonlinear characteristics. After building the panel data of 30 provinces from 2002 to 2014, using the panel threshold model, it is found that there is a double threshold for fiscal decentralization, which can be divided into three stages: low, middle and high levels of fiscal decentralization. The results of the static and dynamic panel models show that in the period of low fiscal decentralization, stronger government competition will hinder export growth. In the period of medium and high fiscal decentralization, government competition will promote export growth. However, during the period of high fiscal decentralization, , This promotion will be weakened. This provides a new explanation for the institutional factors in understanding the rapid process of export growth after China’s accession to the WTO and the complete change in export growth in recent years.