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概率法是现代科技管理中,根据现实信息,按概率观点,予测未来,为决策提供科学依据的有效数学方法。Ω主观概率法是靠发挥专家们主观能动性,对所研究对象提供几点信息作出概率予测的方法,应用中根据专家们经验程度不同分为(a)经验丰富;(b)仅有几次经验两种情况而有相应算法。本文是介绍情况(a)程序的编制与应用。文中先简介(?)法的数学方法,然后陈述程序(a)的编制,最后就“工期予测”,“保密投标”,“粮食估产”算例,用人机对话回答所要予测的问题,并与(美)FERT 法或实际结果作了比较。
Probability method is an effective mathematical method for modern science and technology management, based on realistic information, predicting the future from the perspective of probability, and providing scientific basis for decision-making. The Ω subjective probability method is based on exerting the subjective initiative of the experts to provide probabilistic prediction methods for the subjects to be investigated. The application is divided into (a) experienced and (b) only a few times according to the degree of experience of the experts. Experience the algorithm in two situations. This article is to introduce situation (a) the preparation and application of the program. The paper first introduces the mathematical method of the (?) method, then states the preparation of the procedure (a), and finally answers the questions to be measured in the “Construction Period Predicting,” “Confidentiality Bidding,” and “Food Estimated Production” examples. And compared with the (US) FERT method or actual results.