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随着市场经济的确立,决策内涵发生了深刻变化,决策的因素越来越复杂,决策的多元性、相关性增多;常规决策减少,而非常规决策大大增加;决策的时限性增强,而能见度降低,增加了决策的难度,尤其是风险度加大。这种不确定性和风险性,对领导者是否具备风险决策意识和能力是一个经常性的检验。 一、风险型决策的基本框架 所谓风险型决策,大体有三层含义:一是它的创造性或叫非常规性。风险型决策是一种创造性决策,它没有先例,没有现成的经验可循,甚至在特定情况下,必须打破常规性的决策模式;二是它在期望值上
With the establishment of a market economy, profound changes have taken place in the connotation of decision-making, the factors of decision-making have become more and more complicated, the diversity and relevance of decision-making have increased, the conventional decision-making has been reduced, but the unconventional decision has been greatly increased, the decision- Reduce, increasing the difficulty of making decisions, especially the increased risk. This uncertainty and risk is a constant test of whether leaders have a sense of risk and ability to make decisions. First, the basic framework for risk-based decision-making The so-called risk-based decision-making, generally has three meanings: First, its creativity or unconventional. Risk-based decision-making is a creative decision, it has no precedent, no ready-made experience to follow, and even in certain circumstances, we must break the conventional decision-making model; Second, it is in the expectations