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After 30 years of reform and opening up, China’s economic aggregate has risen to the world’s second largest—an incredible accomplishment given that it was once below 100th place. Today, the country wields significant influence on the global economy. However, economic problems in China persist, including an unbalanced economic structure, an unequal distribution of social wealth and inadequate growth in the past year. The public has grown concerned about sustainable economic growth, and some economists have even called for new economic reforms.
What kind of reform does China need to ensure sustainable economic development?
On September 15-19, more than 120 economists took part in a conference in Deqing County’s Mogan Mountain, Zhejiang Province, to discuss the path, focal points and difficulties of China’s next round of reform and opening up. Topics included reform theories and macro-economics, institutional reform and income distribution, urbanization and land system, as well as globalization.
Li Luoli, Vice President of the China Society of Economic Reform (CSER), says the country’s reform effort is at a crucial moment. Future reform will be very difficult and complex, and the path of reform today is quite different from that of 20 years ago.
“Reform focused on economic reform, but now we need reforms in a variety of aspects. Different interest groups have been formed to address social issues. At present, minor reform may lead to major consequences. Reform measures supported by some people may be resisted and objected by others, making reform very difficult for the present time,” Li said.
Peng Sen, former Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the conference that China must appropriately handle four kinds of relationships for future reform, namely, the relationship between the government and the market, between the Central Government and various local governments, between urban and rural areas, and between economic growth and social development.
Future directions
There are various opinions on economic reform. Some scholars wish China would moderately return to a planned economy, while others hope the country further expands privatization. At the conference, participants reached a consensus on future reform: China must adhere to market-oriented principles; the state-owned economy must continue to be an economic mainstay; and there must be a break in administrative monopolies.
Gao Shangquan, Honorary President of the CSER, says the goals for China’s economic reform are to set up a socialist market economy, allocate resources through the market and transfer from a planned economy to a socialist market economy. Therefore, the rules of the market economy must be abided by—they should not be broken in the name of socialism.
In regards to expanding privatization, Gao advises against doing so and believes the economy should continue to be guided by the government. The government’s presence in the economy should not be a reason for reform. In the early 1970s, a great portion of some developed countries’economies were also state-run: 29 percent in Britain, 33 percent in France, 30 percent in Italy and 30 percent in the Federal Republic of Germany. In Japan, the proportion reached 35 percent in the early 1980s. No one branded those countries socialist economies at that time. In Viet Nam, the government’s hand in the economy is much smaller than in China, but no one denies it is a socialist country.
However, Gao said the government should reduce its presence in micro-economic-related activities. Many departments and local governments continue to intervene in areas such as the production and operation of monopolistic industries and even marketoriented competitive industries. Such abuse of administrative power has provided soil for corruption, intensified income inequality and impaired the credibility of the government.
“To tackle the root of the problem, China must accelerate reform of the political administration mechanism, transform government functions and break administrative monopolies,” Gao said. “Market participants should be left alone to do what they are best capable of. The major responsibility of the government is to create an environment of fair competition.”
Urgent reforms
After three decades of reform, especially after China entered the WTO in 2001, the Chinese economy has become increasingly marketoriented, and yet a socialist market economy has been established. However, some problems in the country’s economic development have arisen. Hua Sheng, President of Beijing Yanjing Overseas Chinese University, thinks the most urgent problem China must tackle is reforming its household registration system, or hukou.
The current system, he argues, is restricting economic development. China’s rapid industrialization has brought with it a rise in its urban population, with the proportion reaching 51.27 percent in 2011. However, those who migrate from rural areas to the cities cannot simply transfer their household registration. An increasing number of farmers have moved to the cities but still maintain their rural hukou. Such a system creates drawbacks and social instability.
Wealth distribution was another major topic discussed at the conference. Scholars were in agreement that the government should accelerate reforms addressing income distribution.
Luo Yong, a professor at Peking University, appealed to boost “equal rights reform”: Under present legal frameworks and with the goal of realizing equal public services, the government should incorporate all the benefits of state-owned assets into China’s social security fund and then equally distribute to each one.
Wang Xiaolu, Deputy Director of the National Economic Research Institute at the China Reform Foundation, says the government must adopt a plan for fairer wealth distribution.
Wang suggested the following to the government:
First, alleviate the tax burden of small and micro enterprises. Small businesses are a huge source of jobs, especially for migrant workers. Reducing taxes, or even offering a tax exemption, would improve employment and raise incomes for low-wage earners.
Second, increase the standard of pension insurance and social security aid to low-income families and improve the living conditions of farmers. Given the minimum wage level in poverty-stricken counties, social security aid to low-income families in rural areas is not enough. If aid is increased by 30-40 percent, an additional 400 billion yuan($63.09 billion) would be needed, a bearable amount for the government.
Third, the social security system should cover all migrant workers. Because these workers are away from home, it is difficult to tap into their social security benefits. Firstand second-tier cities—with the exception of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou—should adopt a more liberal hukou policy for migrant workers.
Fourth, public resources should be utilized in a transparent manner and should be made public. That includes transparency in government budgets.
A more liberal economy?
There remain opposing voices to a more open China. Because some Western countries have erected protectionist trade barriers, China should tighten any plans to further liberalize its economy, they say. Still, others say China should not only release its grip at home but also play an active role in formulating the rules of the global economy.
Shi Zhan, an associate professor at China Foreign Affairs University, says globalization begins in the West and expands to the rest of the world. China plays a pivotal role in this process. As China reaps the benefits of globalization, it is also being forced to expand reform and liberalize its economy.
Liu Mingzhi, a researcher at the PBC School of Finance of Tsinghua University, thinks now is the time for China’s financial industry to hit the international market. The global financial crisis in 2008 triggered a readjustment of the international financial order, which is now focused on developing emerging markets. As the influence of emerging markets in global affairs increases, the international monetary system will be forced to be more pluralistic. The Chinese financial industry should more actively participate in this readjustment to develop a fairer international order.
What kind of reform does China need to ensure sustainable economic development?
On September 15-19, more than 120 economists took part in a conference in Deqing County’s Mogan Mountain, Zhejiang Province, to discuss the path, focal points and difficulties of China’s next round of reform and opening up. Topics included reform theories and macro-economics, institutional reform and income distribution, urbanization and land system, as well as globalization.
Li Luoli, Vice President of the China Society of Economic Reform (CSER), says the country’s reform effort is at a crucial moment. Future reform will be very difficult and complex, and the path of reform today is quite different from that of 20 years ago.
“Reform focused on economic reform, but now we need reforms in a variety of aspects. Different interest groups have been formed to address social issues. At present, minor reform may lead to major consequences. Reform measures supported by some people may be resisted and objected by others, making reform very difficult for the present time,” Li said.
Peng Sen, former Vice Chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the conference that China must appropriately handle four kinds of relationships for future reform, namely, the relationship between the government and the market, between the Central Government and various local governments, between urban and rural areas, and between economic growth and social development.
Future directions
There are various opinions on economic reform. Some scholars wish China would moderately return to a planned economy, while others hope the country further expands privatization. At the conference, participants reached a consensus on future reform: China must adhere to market-oriented principles; the state-owned economy must continue to be an economic mainstay; and there must be a break in administrative monopolies.
Gao Shangquan, Honorary President of the CSER, says the goals for China’s economic reform are to set up a socialist market economy, allocate resources through the market and transfer from a planned economy to a socialist market economy. Therefore, the rules of the market economy must be abided by—they should not be broken in the name of socialism.
In regards to expanding privatization, Gao advises against doing so and believes the economy should continue to be guided by the government. The government’s presence in the economy should not be a reason for reform. In the early 1970s, a great portion of some developed countries’economies were also state-run: 29 percent in Britain, 33 percent in France, 30 percent in Italy and 30 percent in the Federal Republic of Germany. In Japan, the proportion reached 35 percent in the early 1980s. No one branded those countries socialist economies at that time. In Viet Nam, the government’s hand in the economy is much smaller than in China, but no one denies it is a socialist country.
However, Gao said the government should reduce its presence in micro-economic-related activities. Many departments and local governments continue to intervene in areas such as the production and operation of monopolistic industries and even marketoriented competitive industries. Such abuse of administrative power has provided soil for corruption, intensified income inequality and impaired the credibility of the government.
“To tackle the root of the problem, China must accelerate reform of the political administration mechanism, transform government functions and break administrative monopolies,” Gao said. “Market participants should be left alone to do what they are best capable of. The major responsibility of the government is to create an environment of fair competition.”
Urgent reforms
After three decades of reform, especially after China entered the WTO in 2001, the Chinese economy has become increasingly marketoriented, and yet a socialist market economy has been established. However, some problems in the country’s economic development have arisen. Hua Sheng, President of Beijing Yanjing Overseas Chinese University, thinks the most urgent problem China must tackle is reforming its household registration system, or hukou.
The current system, he argues, is restricting economic development. China’s rapid industrialization has brought with it a rise in its urban population, with the proportion reaching 51.27 percent in 2011. However, those who migrate from rural areas to the cities cannot simply transfer their household registration. An increasing number of farmers have moved to the cities but still maintain their rural hukou. Such a system creates drawbacks and social instability.
Wealth distribution was another major topic discussed at the conference. Scholars were in agreement that the government should accelerate reforms addressing income distribution.
Luo Yong, a professor at Peking University, appealed to boost “equal rights reform”: Under present legal frameworks and with the goal of realizing equal public services, the government should incorporate all the benefits of state-owned assets into China’s social security fund and then equally distribute to each one.
Wang Xiaolu, Deputy Director of the National Economic Research Institute at the China Reform Foundation, says the government must adopt a plan for fairer wealth distribution.
Wang suggested the following to the government:
First, alleviate the tax burden of small and micro enterprises. Small businesses are a huge source of jobs, especially for migrant workers. Reducing taxes, or even offering a tax exemption, would improve employment and raise incomes for low-wage earners.
Second, increase the standard of pension insurance and social security aid to low-income families and improve the living conditions of farmers. Given the minimum wage level in poverty-stricken counties, social security aid to low-income families in rural areas is not enough. If aid is increased by 30-40 percent, an additional 400 billion yuan($63.09 billion) would be needed, a bearable amount for the government.
Third, the social security system should cover all migrant workers. Because these workers are away from home, it is difficult to tap into their social security benefits. Firstand second-tier cities—with the exception of Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou—should adopt a more liberal hukou policy for migrant workers.
Fourth, public resources should be utilized in a transparent manner and should be made public. That includes transparency in government budgets.
A more liberal economy?
There remain opposing voices to a more open China. Because some Western countries have erected protectionist trade barriers, China should tighten any plans to further liberalize its economy, they say. Still, others say China should not only release its grip at home but also play an active role in formulating the rules of the global economy.
Shi Zhan, an associate professor at China Foreign Affairs University, says globalization begins in the West and expands to the rest of the world. China plays a pivotal role in this process. As China reaps the benefits of globalization, it is also being forced to expand reform and liberalize its economy.
Liu Mingzhi, a researcher at the PBC School of Finance of Tsinghua University, thinks now is the time for China’s financial industry to hit the international market. The global financial crisis in 2008 triggered a readjustment of the international financial order, which is now focused on developing emerging markets. As the influence of emerging markets in global affairs increases, the international monetary system will be forced to be more pluralistic. The Chinese financial industry should more actively participate in this readjustment to develop a fairer international order.