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我想从一个稍微不同的观点,来看21世纪的世界经济。假设我是公元2050年的一位经济史学家,我在回顾60年之前——也就是1990年代的世界经济状况,并着手写一本经济史的书。各位想一想,通常历史学家的做法是什么?他们喜欢记录一个时代到另一个时代的转变;指出不同的年代各有什么不同的特性,找出一些具戏剧性的事件,作为时代转变的象征。比方说,法国大革命是历史上非常重要的事件,因为它代表专政君主王朝步上结束之途,及现代国家体制成形的开始。而这种转变的象征便是巴斯底监狱的沦陷。有趣的是,历史上许多这种象征事件本身并不重要。以巴斯底监狱来说,事发当时狱中只关了6名心智低能的人犯,监狱本身并不是军事行动的重要目标,但它却是个重要事件的象征。21世纪的特点从经济史学家的眼光来看,19世纪是英国的世纪。当时英国是世界上最大的经济体,拥有全球最高的国民所得,而带领人类进入工业时代的科技发
I would like to look at the world economy in the 21st century from a slightly different point of view. Assuming I am an economic historian in 2050 AD, I reviewed the world economy 60 years ago - the 1990’s world economic situation and started writing a book on economic history. Think about what historians usually do: they like to document the shift from one age to another; they point out the different characteristics of different ages and find out some dramatic events as symbols of the changing times . For example, the French Revolution was a very important event in history because it represented the end of the dictatorship dynasty and the beginning of the formation of a modern state. The symbol of this shift is the fall of the Psidi prison. Interestingly, many of these symbolic events in history have not taken on their own. In the case of Bastille, the prison was closed to only six people with mental disabilities at the time of the incident, and the prison itself was not an important target for military operations, but it was a symbol of an important event. The 21st century features From an economic historian’s point of view, the 19th century was the century of Great Britain. At that time, Britain was the largest economy in the world, possessing the highest national income in the world and leading the mankind into the technological advancement of the industrial age