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现在有不少人估计,1994年上海经济发展增幅可能会下降,这种担心不无道理。这是因为:一、去年6月中央采取宏观调控政策以后,下半年上海经济增幅明显趋缓。二、据有关同志研究,我国经济增长存在着周期性波动趋势,原来就有人预言,1992年四季度可能是一个经济发展高峰,后来又估计高峰可能延迟到1993年上半年,过后将出现拐点。三、根据历史资料分析,上海经济的发展与全国存在着很强的同步性。据报道,1994年全国国民生产总值
Many people now have an estimate that the economic growth in Shanghai may decline in 1994, which is not unreasonable. This is because: First, since the Central Government adopted the macro-control policy in June last year, Shanghai’s economic growth slowed down obviously in the second half of the year. 2. According to the study of relevant comrades, there is a cyclical trend in the economic growth in our country. Originally, some people predicted that the fourth quarter of 1992 may be the peak of economic development. Later, it is estimated that the peak may be postponed until the first half of 1993 and there will be an inflection point later. Third, according to historical data analysis, there is a strong synchronization between the development of Shanghai’s economy and the whole country. It is reported that in 1994 the national gross national product