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本文应用汇率传递理论(exchange rate pass-through,简称ERPT),研究人民币汇率对我国不同产业出口商品价格的传递效应问题,使用2005年7月21日汇率改革以来我国SITC两位数分类的出口商品月度数据,运用OLS方法估计人民币主动升值后汇率变动对我国十类主要工业制成品出口价格的传递效应。考察了1985年广场协议后日本产业结构在日元升值过程中的调整经验,发现1990-1995年的日本与2005-2008年的中国有着类似的经济环境遭遇———面临汇率升值和外需减弱的双重约束,进一步比较了中日两国在此期间产业之间汇率传递效应、影响因素以及企业应对汇率升值策略三个方面的差异。最后从汇率政策和产业政策两个方面提出了政策建议。
This paper uses exchange rate pass-through theory (exchange rate pass-through, referred to as ERPT) to study the effect of RMB exchange rate on the export commodity prices of different industries in our country. Using the double-digit SITC export commodities since the exchange rate reform of July 21, 2005, Monthly data, using OLS method to estimate the RMB exchange rate changes after the active appreciation of China’s ten major industrial products export price transfer effect. After examining the adjustment of Japan’s industrial structure during the appreciation of the yen after 1985 Plaza Accord, Japan found that Japan experienced a similar economic environment in 1990-1995 as that of China in 2005-2008. Facing the exchange rate appreciation and weaker external demand The paper further compares the differences between the two countries in the exchange rate pass-through between industries, the influencing factors and the strategies of enterprises to deal with the exchange rate appreciation. Finally, we put forward policy suggestions from two aspects of exchange rate policy and industrial policy.