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目的分析2011—2015年上海市金山区传染病自动预警系统运行情况。方法利用描述流行病学、卡方检验等方法对2011—2015年上海市金山区传染病自动预警监测数据进行分析评价。结果 2011—2015年单病种预警249次,响应及时率为58.63%;时间(时空)序列预警1 010次,响应及时率为98.42%,时间序列预警响应及时率高于单病种预警(χ~2=369.32,P<0.01)。病种预警次数前5位的是水痘、手足口病、流行性感冒、麻疹和其他感染性腹泻。上海市金山区2011—2015年传染病自动预警信息系统共发出预警信号1 259次;初步判断疑似事件60起,经现场调查确认传染病暴发事件36起,预警信号阳性率为2.86%。结论上海市金山区传染病预警系统运行基本良好,预警响应率高,可初步实现传染病暴发的早期自动预警。但预警信号阳性率较低,应建立针对评价传染病自动预警系统特有的“疑似暴发事件标准”。
Objective To analyze the operation of automatic warning system for infectious diseases in Jinshan District of Shanghai from 2011 to 2015. Methods Descriptive epidemiological and chi-square test were used to analyze and evaluate the automatic monitoring data of infectious diseases in Jinshan District of Shanghai from 2011 to 2015. Results There were 249 early warnings of single disease in 2011-2015, the response timeliness rate was 58.63%. The time (space-time) sequence warning was 1 010 times and the response timeliness rate was 98.42%. The time-series warning response timeliness was higher than that of the single disease warning ~ 2 = 369.32, P <0.01). The top five warnings were chickenpox, hand-foot-mouth disease, influenza, measles and other infectious diarrhea. A total of 1 259 early-warning signals were sent out in Jinshan District of Shanghai Municipality. A preliminary warning signal was issued in 2011-2015. 60 suspects were initially identified. Thirty-six cases of infectious disease outbreaks were confirmed on site. The positive rate of early warning signals was 2.86%. Conclusion Early warning system for infectious diseases in Jinshan District of Shanghai is basically good and early warning response rate is high, which can initially realize the early warning of outbreaks of infectious diseases. However, the positive rate of early warning signals is relatively low, and special “suspected outbreak criteria” for automatic evaluation of infectious diseases should be established.