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蓄滞洪区是流域防洪体系的重要组成部分。在我国水资源短缺、生态环境不断恶化的背景下,通过调整蓄滞洪区的运行方式以实现洪水资源化的思路被普遍认可。如何在保证蓄滞洪区防洪功能发挥和群众生命安全的前提下,合理利用区内的水土资源,提高蓄滞洪区综合利用的整体效益,是蓄滞洪区规划和管理的一个新问题。论文基于多目标分析和情景分析技术,建立蓄滞洪区综合利用多目标情景分析模型,在分析影响蓄滞洪区各功能发挥的驱动因素基础上,设计未来发展情景,计算不同情景下效益最优的功能区规划方案。并以海河流域大黄堡洼蓄滞洪区为对象进行实例研究。结果表明,该模型能够为蓄滞洪区的综合利用规划提供参考,并有助于提高决策的适应性和灵活性。
Flood detention basin is an important part of flood control system. Under the background of the shortage of water resources and deteriorating ecological environment in our country, the idea of adjusting the operation mode of flood detention basin to realize the resource of flood is generally accepted. How to make full use of the local water and soil resources and improve the overall efficiency of the comprehensive utilization of the storage and detention basin is a new issue in the planning and management of the storage and detention basin under the premise of ensuring the flood control function and the safety of people’s life in the storage and detention basin. Based on the multi-objective analysis and scenario analysis techniques, this paper establishes a multi-objective scenario analysis model for comprehensive utilization of flood storage and detention areas. Based on the analysis of the driving factors that affect the various functions of the detention basin, the paper designs the future development scenarios and calculates the optimal benefit under different scenarios Functional Area Planning Scheme. The case study of flood storage and detention area in Hubuwa depression of Haihe River Basin was conducted. The results show that this model can provide a reference for comprehensive utilization planning of flood storage and detention areas and help to improve the adaptability and flexibility of decision making.