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在飓风路径的数值预报中,对于初始场的要求很高。然而,由于初始资料的缺乏,经常导致路径预报的误差较大,尤其是当飓风处于远离陆地的海上时,这种误差更大。通过利用UM模式在Debby飓风活动期间,对下投式探空仪所获取探空资料;采用不同使用方案的三个时次共计10次数值试验的结论分析,给出一些有意义的结论,即非实时资料对实时资料的有效补充,能够提高飓风路径预报精度,而在众多气象要素场中,风场和湿度场对飓风路径预报的影响更大。
In the numerical prediction of hurricane paths, the requirements for the initial field are high. However, the lack of initial data often leads to large errors in path forecasting, especially when the hurricane is offshore at sea. Through the use of the UM model during the Debby hurricane, the sounding data of the subsputing radiosonde were obtained. Based on the analysis of 10 times of three time-series numerical experiments with different schemes, some meaningful conclusions were drawn Non-real-time data to effectively supplement real-time data, can improve the accuracy of hurricane path prediction, and in many meteorological elements field, the wind field and humidity field hurricane path forecasting greater impact.