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针对2012年5月以来鸡蛋价格不断攀升的市场现象,运用计量经济学方法将全国及北京鸡蛋市场价格变化分解成长期趋势、周期波动、季节波动和随机波动4方面,进而分析各方面的变化规律及形成原因,发现受各种因素影响,鸡蛋价格波动具有周期性和季节性特征,目前鸡蛋价格已基本完成新周期的下行阶段,正处于上行阶段的起始位置,并且该上行阶段将持续大约一年半的时间。
In view of the market phenomenon of rising egg prices since May 2012, the econometric method was used to decompose the market price changes of the whole country and Beijing into long-term trends, cyclical fluctuations, seasonal fluctuations and stochastic fluctuations, and then analyze the changes in various aspects And found that due to various factors, the fluctuation of the price of eggs has the characteristics of cyclicality and seasonality. At present, the price of eggs has basically completed the downward phase of the new cycle and is at the starting position of the upward phase, and the upward phase will last for about A year and a half