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房地产泡沫作为一种世界性问题,具有一定的“传染性”。从1990年日本、美国的房地产泡沫到1997年东南亚的金融危机,泡沫的传染性在发达国家和发展中国家问均有例证。近两年,新一轮的全球房地产泡沫倾向又开始显现。房地产开发作为一个市场化了的产业的历史,在中国只有十数年时间。如今,中国房地产业正值多事之秋,新一轮的宏观调控以央行提息为标志正式开始。除加息和紧缩信贷外,行业调控自然也是紧缩政策的一部分。但与2004年宏调不同的是,这次行业调控的重点不再是钢铁、水泥、电解铝等制造业,而是房地产。中国房地产价格将何去何从?可谓众说纷纭。这里,我们没有答案,咱们还是听陶东和魏雅华两位博客谈谈美国房地产业的情况吧!提到美国房地产,华尔街投资银行雷曼兄弟曾经预测,美国房地产市场将经历一次“硬着陆”。经济学家德鲁·马图斯认为,到今年年底之前,美国房价增速将持续下降。瑞士信贷的董事总经理陶东在博客里谈到全美的楼价下调趋势似乎开始成形,经济软着陆的可能性比较高。身为画家、作家、时评经济学家的魏雅华则谈到在美国买房的经历以及中美两国的比较。
As a worldwide problem, the real estate bubble has a certain “contagion”. From the real estate bubble in Japan and the United States in 1990 to the financial crisis in Southeast Asia in 1997, the contagion of bubbles has been shown in both developed and developing countries. In the past two years, a new round of global real estate bubble tendencies began to emerge. The history of real estate development as a market-oriented industry is only ten years in China. Nowadays, the real estate industry in China is just as troublesome. The new round of macroeconomic regulation and control formally started with the interest rate increase by the central bank. In addition to raising interest rates and tightening credit, industry regulation is naturally part of a tightening policy. However, the difference with 2004 macro is that the focus of the industry control is no longer steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum and other manufacturing, but real estate. China’s real estate prices go from here? Here we have no answer, we still listen to Tao Dong and Wei Yahua two blog about the real estate industry in the United States it! Mentioned the United States real estate, Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers has predicted that the US real estate market will experience a “hard landing ”. Economist Drew Matus believes that by the end of this year, the US housing prices will continue to decline. Tao Dong, managing director of Credit Suisse, said in a blog post that the downward trend in property prices in the United States appears to be starting to take shape and the economy is more likely to have a soft landing. Wei Yahua, a painter, writer and commentator economist, talked about the experience of buying a house in the United States and the comparison between China and the United States.