股市不是经济的“晴雨表”?

• 作 者: 陈毅聪
• 出 处: 中国企业家
• 发表日期: 2005年20期
• 关键词: 股价 内地经济 内地 热点行业 投资者队伍 内生增长 股市投资者 上证指数 经济增长 估值

抛开对股价指数的过分关注,从热点行业的轮回来看,这几年内地股市对宏观经济相当敏感人们总喜欢说,股市不是内地经济的“晴雨表”,国民经济年年高速增长,股市却一直在走熊。这种说法其实不是非常确切。原因是:他们把股市替换成股价(以上证指教为代表)。即,他们认为,股价是经济的“晴雨表”。事实上,尽管股价是股市最重要的因素,却不是全部。

Putting aside the over-attention of the stock price index, from the perspective of hot industry rotation, the mainland stock market has been quite sensitive to the macro economy in recent years. People always like to say that the stock market is not a “barometer” of the mainland economy, the national economy is growing at a high rate every year, and the stock market Has been taking a bear. In fact, this argument is not very precise. The reason is: they replace the stock market with stock prices (represented by the Shanghai Education Association). That is, they think the stock price is a “barometer” of the economy. In fact, although stock prices are the most important factor in the stock market, they are not all.