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矿产资源的有限性同需求快速增长之间的矛盾日趋突出。未来我国经济发展究竟需要多少矿产资源,何时到达矿产资源需求高峰,这些问题是国家制定矿产资源战略的基础。研究提出矿产资源消耗双拐点理论:一是矿产资源消耗强度达到峰值时对应的拐点,矿产资源由粗放利用向集约利用转变;二是矿产资源消费水平达到峰值时对应的拐点,矿产资源消费由增加向减少转变。经过逻辑推导,并以先期工业化的美国为例,追溯矿产资源消耗与经济社会发展变迁的历史轨迹来佐证了这一理论。通过比较研究,定性地判断我国未来矿产资源消耗趋势,未来5～15 a我国矿产资源需求空间仍然很大。选择BP神经网络和岭回归预测方法,综合考虑经济发展、人口变化和科技进步等因素,基于Matlab软件实现了对我国矿产资源需求的拐点与峰值预测。预测结果显示:能源需求拐点将在“十四五”时期出现,峰值为45×108～50×108t标准煤;钢铁需求拐点将在“十三五”时期出现,峰值为8×108t左右;铜需求拐点将在“十三五”时期出现,峰值为900×104t左右;铝需求拐点将在“十二五”时期出现,峰值为1 600×104～1 700×104t左右。
The contradiction between the limited mineral resources and the rapid growth of demand has become increasingly prominent. In the future, how much mineral resources are needed for economic development in our country? When will we reach the peak demand for mineral resources? These issues are the basis for our country to formulate a strategy for mineral resources. This paper puts forward the theory of double inflection point of mineral resources consumption. The first is the inflection point when the intensity of mineral resource consumption reaches its peak, the transformation of mineral resources from extensive use to intensive use. The second is the inflection point corresponding to the peak consumption of mineral resources, To reduce the change. After logical derivation and the pre-industrialization of the United States as an example, this theory is corroborated by tracing the historical trajectory of mineral resource consumption and economic and social development changes. Through comparative study, we can qualitatively judge the trend of consumption of mineral resources in China in the future, and the demand for mineral resources in China will still be huge in the next 5-15 years. Based on the factors of economic development, population change and scientific and technological progress, the BP neural network and ridge regression prediction method are selected. Based on the Matlab software, the inflection point and peak value of mineral resources demand in our country are predicted. The forecast results show that the inflection point of energy demand will appear in the period of “14th Five-Year Plan” with the peak value of 45 × 108 ~ 50 × 108t standard coal; the inflection point of steel demand will appear in the period of “Thirteen Five” and the peak value is 8 × 108t or so; the inflection point of copper demand will appear in the period of “13th Five-Year ” and the peak value will be about 900 × 104t; the inflection point of aluminum demand will appear in the “Twelfth Five-Year” period with the peak value of 1 600 × 104 ~ 1 700 × 104t or so.