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本文运用引力模型检验了1990—2003年间中国的出口增长是否以及如何替代了其他亚洲国家对第三方市场的出口。中国的出口可以狭义的界定为不包括香港的出口,也可以广义地界定为包括香港的出口。文章考查了中国狭义的出口和广义的出口对亚洲出口的替代效应是否存在差异,并做了总体及分解分析。然后,考查了不同亚洲国家及不同贸易伙伴的替代效应的不同。研究发现:在发达国家市场上以及将中国大陆与香港加总考虑时,替代效应更为显著。另外,中国对高收入国家的替代效应要更大。文章也考查了中国的发展所引起的从邻国的进口增加是否会产生抵消效应,发现:中国的经济增长确实增加了从所抽样的亚洲国家的进口,特别是从日本和韩国的进口。
In this paper, we use the gravity model to test whether and how China’s export growth during 1990-2003 replaced the exports of other Asian countries to third-party markets. China’s exports can be narrowly defined as exports that do not include Hong Kong. They can also be broadly defined as exports that include Hong Kong. The article examines whether the substitution effects of China’s narrowly defined exports and broadly defined exports on Asian exports are different and analyzed in an overall and factorized manner. Then, examining the different substitution effects of different Asian countries and different trading partners. The study finds that substitution effects are more pronounced in the developed countries and in aggregating mainland China and Hong Kong. In addition, China will have a greater substitution effect on high-income countries. The article also examined whether the increase in imports from neighboring countries caused by China’s development would have a countervailing effect and found that China’s economic growth did increase imports from the sampled Asian countries, especially from Japan and South Korea.