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研究棉花雹灾脆弱性可为棉花雹灾风险管理和减灾提供关键科学支撑。应用降雹模拟装置,设计35种降雹情景,进行了降雹对棉花植株损害的田间试验;利用Logistic方法分析了降雹致灾因子与棉花植株损害参数的定量关系。结果表明:随着降雹致灾强度的增加,棉花植株脆弱性增大,导致棉花植株损伤程度增大;棉花蕾期脆弱性大于花铃期,是防预和减轻棉花雹灾的关键期;降雹直径、降雹密度与棉花因雹落叶率、断枝率和落蕾铃率之间均存在显著的Logistic函数关系,降雹直径预测棉花植株雹灾损失效果更优,花铃期较蕾期函数拟合效果更好。研究结果为综合评判降雹对棉花植株损伤提供了科学依据,有助于理解棉花雹灾脆弱性形成的机理。所述研究方法对其他雹灾承灾体脆弱性试验研究有一定参考意义。
Studying the vulnerability of cotton hail disaster can provide the key scientific support for the management of cotton hail hazard and disaster reduction. Hailing simulator was used to design 35 kinds of hail scenarios and conduct field experiments on hail damage to cotton plants. Logistic method was used to analyze the quantitative relationship between hail hazard factors and cotton damage parameters. The results showed that with the increase of hail disaster-causing intensity, the vulnerability of cotton plants increased, which led to the increase of damage degree of cotton plants. The vulnerability of cotton bud stage was greater than that of flowering stage, which was the key period to prevent and mitigate cotton hail. The hail diameter , There was a significant logistic function relationship between hail density and hail falling rate, breaking rate and boll rate of cotton, hail diameter was more effective in predicting the loss of hail in cotton plant, it is good. The results provide a scientific basis for the comprehensive evaluation of hail damage to cotton plants and help to understand the mechanism of the formation of cotton hail disaster vulnerability. The research method is of some reference to the experimental study on the vulnerability of other hail disaster-bearing bodies.