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本文通过构建税收负担计量模型以探究中国省级税收负担变化的主导动因,并对税收征管绩效进行评估。研究结果表明:经济因素对省级税收负担的影响出现分化。经济增长、产业结构优化及城市化因素虽然增加了税基但并未推升省级税收负担;而进出口贸易、通货膨胀分别与省级税收负担呈正相关性和负相关性。政治因素即预算内收入分权对总体税负和各税种税负都有显著的正向影响。从征管绩效看,全国平均税收努力指数为0.996,东部地区最高,西部和中部地区次之,但两者相差不大。其中,增值税税收努力指数最高。但地方政府税收努力与转移支付的关系并未呈现出明显的区域特征,即所谓的转移支付依赖或替代效应并不明显。
In this paper, by building tax burden measurement model to explore the leading motivation for the change of tax burden in China, and to assess the performance of tax collection. The results show that: the economic factors on the tax burden of the provincial divisions. Although economic growth, industrial structure optimization and urbanization increased the tax base but did not push up provincial tax burden, import and export trade and inflation were positively and negatively correlated with provincial tax burden respectively. Political factors, that is, decentralized income within the budget, have a significant positive impact on the overall tax burden and the taxes on all kinds of taxes. From the performance of collection and management, the national average tax effort index was 0.996, the highest in the eastern region, followed by the western and central regions, but the two were similar. Among them, the highest value-added tax revenue efforts index. However, the relationship between taxation efforts by local governments and transfer payments does not show obvious regional characteristics. The so-called dependency on transfer payments or substitution effect is not obvious.