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【目的】定量分析博斯腾湖面积变化趋势及其驱动因素,研究博斯腾湖面积历史变化规律,预测其2020与2030年的湖泊面积变化趋势,为博斯腾湖水资源合理开发利用与管理提供科学依据。【方法】以博斯腾湖为研究对象,利用3S技术,解译多年遥感影像数据,计算1978、1990、2000、2015年的博斯腾湖面积;将遥感解译结果结合水文、气象、社会经济统计数据,运用相关分析、主成分分析与多元回归模型定量分析引起博斯腾湖面积变化的驱动因素,并对博斯腾湖2020与2030年的面积变化趋势进行预测。【结果】1978~2015年间博斯腾湖面积减少了约39.75 km~2,总体呈现减少的变化趋势,经历变小-变大-再变小的波动性变化过程;人为因素(人口数量、灌溉面积、引水量、灌溉量)与气候因素(径流量、气温、降水量)是影响博斯腾湖面积变化的两个关键因素,在博斯腾湖面积变化过程中的贡献率分别为47.793%和37.818%;未来5与15 a博斯腾湖面积在人类活动与气候变化的共同影响下将呈现继续减少的变化趋势,预计在2020与2030年分别为939.23和935.34 km~2。【结论】在过去30多年中,博斯腾湖面积经历了缩小-扩大-再缩小的波动性变化过程;人类活动与气候变化因素是引起变化的驱动因素,其中人类活动起主导作用;未来5与15 a博斯腾湖面积仍将持续呈现逐渐变小的趋势。
【Objective】 Quantitative analysis of the trend of Bosten Lake area and its driving factors, study of the history of the Bosten Lake area, and predict the trend of the lake area from 2020 to 2030, provide a scientific basis for the rational development, utilization and management of the Bosten Lake water resources. 【Method】 Taking Bosten Lake as the research object, the 3S technique was used to interpret the data from many years of remote sensing images to calculate the area of Bosten Lake in 1978, 1990, 2000 and 2015. The results of remote sensing interpretation were combined with hydrological, meteorological and socio-economic statistical data, Analysis, principal component analysis and multivariate regression models to quantitatively analyze the drivers of the changes in the area of the Bosten Lake and predict the area trends of the Bosten Lake in 2020 and 2030. 【Result】 The area of Bosten Lake decreased by about 39.75 km ~ 2 from 1978 to 2015, showing an overall trend of decrease. It experienced a process of change from small to large to small to small. The human factors (population, irrigated area, Water and irrigation) and climatic factors (runoff, air temperature and precipitation) are the two key factors that affect the area of the Bosten Lake. The contribution rate of the area in the Bosten Lake is 47.793% and 37.818% respectively. In the future, The Bosten Lake area will continue to decrease with the combination of human activities and climate change. It is estimated that the area will be 939.23 and 935.34 km ~ 2 in 2020 and 2030 respectively. 【Conclusion】 Over the past 30 years, the area of Bosten Lake has experienced the process of decreasing, expanding, and shrinking. The human and climate change factors are the driving forces for the changes. Among them, human activities play a leading role. In the next 5 and 15 years Bosten Lake area will continue to show a gradual smaller trend.