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现代弹箭系统是一种集多门学科于一身的复杂系统.在研制过程中,由于受到不确定性因素的影响,会给研制工作带来一定的风险.本文分析了各种风险分析与估计方法,给出了风险的数学表述方法和风险分布的概率估计.结合武器系统研制的实际情况,假定行为人风险偏好特性为定常风险中立,给出了在该风险偏好特性下的险度函数.通过险度函数的研制风险分析为风险决策提供了量化的决策依据.以反直升机智能雷战斗部为例,验证了该方法的有效性,并且具有科学和实用价值.
The modern projectile system is a complex system integrating many disciplines.In the process of development, due to the influence of uncertain factors, it will bring certain risks to the research and development.This paper analyzes various risk analysis and estimation Method, the mathematical expression of risk and the probability estimation of risk distribution are given.Combined with the actual situation of weapon system development, we assume that the risk appetite of actor is neutral risk of regular risk, and the risk function under the risk preference characteristic is given. The risk analysis based on the risk function provides a quantitative decision-making basis for risk decision-making.With the anti-helicopter intelligent mine warhead as an example, the method is validated and has scientific and practical value.