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以水蚀风蚀交错区内西柳沟流域为研究对象,根据流域把口站1960-2010年长时间序列径流资料,运用线性倾向估计、小波分析、最大熵谱分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验及累积距平等数理统计分析方法,揭示西柳沟流域年径流量变化的趋势性、周期性及其突变性,并探讨分析了其变化影响因素.结果表明:径流量变化年际差异大,存在减少的变化趋势,但并没有通过显著性检验;小波及最大熵谱分析结果表明,西柳沟年径流量存在3年、5年、9年以及21年变化周期,其中3年变化周期为径流量变化第一主周期;Mann-Kendall及t-检验结果表明,年径流量在2004年和2006年左右发生了突变;径流量变化受降影响最为明显,其峰谷值和周期变化均随降雨的变化而变化,流域坝库工程对降雨径流的拦蓄作用明显,2000以来的淤地坝建设使得径流量序列发生突变.
Taking Xiluogou watershed as the research object, according to the long-time runoff data from 1960 to 2010 in Guankou Station, linear propensity estimation, wavelet analysis, maximum entropy spectrum analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test and cumulative distance equals Mathematical statistic analysis method to reveal the trend, periodicity and mutation of the annual runoff in Xiluogou watershed, and to analyze and analyze its influencing factors.The results show that there is a large interannual variation of runoff, But did not pass the significance test. The results of wavelet and maximum entropy spectrum showed that the annual flow of Xiliugou existed in three years, five years, nine years and 21 years. The three-year period was the first main period ; Mann-Kendall and t-test results showed that the annual runoff changed suddenly in 2004 and around 2006. The change of runoff was most obviously affected by the fall, and the peak and valley changes of the runoff varied with the change of rainfall. Reservoir engineering has obvious effect on rainfall runoff. The construction of check dam since 2000 caused a sudden change of runoff series.