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本文利用我国1981—2012年31个省份的面板数据,在检验地区农民收入的空间相关性的基础上,运用空间自回归模型(SAR)和空间误差模型(SEM)分析了信贷配给对地区农民收入的影响。分析结果表明,地区农民收入存在空间相关性,且相关程度逐年递增;空间自回归模型回归发现,农业信贷配给对地区农民收入具有正向影响,这主要源于民间金融对地区正规金融挤出效应、正规信贷配给的低效率和地区农民收入的空间正效应;城市化水平对地区农民收入显著正相关,农耕面积与地区农民收入负相关。空间误差模型回归结果表明,除了受到本地区可观测因素的影响,相邻地区经济和社会等方面不可观测因素对本地农民收入水平整体上产生正向影响。
Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1981 to 2012, based on the spatial correlation of peasants’ income in the region, this paper analyzes the effect of credit rationing on the income of peasants in the region by using spatial autoregressive model (SAR) and spatial error model (SEM) Impact. The results show that the peasants ’income in the region exists the spatial correlation and the degree of correlation increases year by year. The regression of the spatial autoregressive model shows that the agricultural credit rationing has a positive impact on the peasants’ income in the region mainly due to the informal financial crowding-out effect , The ineffectiveness of formal credit rationing and the positive spatial effect of regional peasants’ income. The level of urbanization has a significant positive correlation with the peasants’ income in the region. The area of peasants is negatively correlated with the peasants’ income in the region. The regression results of spatial error model show that in addition to the influence of observable factors in the region, the unobservable economic and social factors of neighboring regions have a positive impact on the overall income level of local farmers.