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目前我国的人民币升值仍然是人们讨论的热点问题,根据国家信息中心利用模型对汇率升值进行模拟分析得出的结论:人民币升值3%,出口增速将减少1.5个百分点,进口增速增加0.2个百分点。按2004年数据计算,相当于出口减少91亿美元,进口增加12亿美元,贸易顺差由320亿美元减少到217亿美元,减少净出口需求852亿元人民币,大约影响当年GDP增长率(当年支出法GDP为140776亿元,增长9.5%)中0.6个百分点。本文通过分析在人民币升值的背景下,通过分析人民币升值对我国贸易的影响,讨论进口商品与国内商品消费关系。
At present, the revaluation of the renminbi in our country is still a hot topic for discussion. According to the simulation made by the National Information Center on the exchange rate appreciation using the model, the conclusion is: RMB appreciation will be 3%, the export growth will decrease by 1.5% and the import growth will increase by 0.2% percentage point. On the basis of 2004 data, it is equivalent to a decrease of 9.1 billion U.S. dollars in exports, an increase of 1.2 billion U.S. dollars in imports, a trade surplus of 32 billion U.S. dollars to 21.7 billion U.S. dollars, a reduction of 85.2 billion U.S. dollars in net exports, Method GDP was 14,077.6 billion yuan, an increase of 9.5%) 0.6 percentage points. This article analyzes the impact of RMB appreciation on China’s trade in the context of the appreciation of the renminbi and discusses the relationship between the import of goods and the consumption of domestic products.