气象因子对抚仙湖水量的影响

• 作 者: 李艳萍
• 机 构: 云南省水文水资源局玉溪分局,
• 出 处: 水电能源科学
• 发表日期: 2012年12期
• 关键词: 抚仙湖 因子 降水因子 蒸发因子 水温因子 水量 预报模型 水温 蓄水量 降水量

抚仙湖为我国第二深水湖泊,为合理开发利用和有效保护抚仙湖水资源、加强湖泊的调度运用控制,在分析气象因子的基础上,采用逐步回归分析法构建了预报模型,寻求影响抚仙湖各月1日蓄水量的主要因子、影响程度及时空分布情况。分析比较结果表明,考虑水温和降水因子的预报模型效果最佳,各月1日蓄水量均受湖水温和降水情况双重影响,最主要的影响因子为降水量因子。

Fuxian Lake is the second deepwater lake in our country. In order to reasonably develop and utilize Fuxian Lake water resources and enhance the control of the lake, based on the analysis of meteorological factors, a stepwise regression analysis method is used to construct the forecasting model, Xianhu each month on the main factors of water storage, the extent of impact and spatial and temporal distribution. The analysis and comparison results show that the prediction model considering the water temperature and precipitation factors is the best, and the water storage on the 1st of each month is affected by both the mild and the moderate precipitation. The most important influencing factor is the precipitation factor.