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近年来,房地产市场逐渐进入了繁荣阶段,房地产价格高速增长,与此同时,我国M2的供应量也增速迅猛。本文采用定量分析与定性分析相结合的方法,试图研究M2影响房价的传导机制。首先在理论维度上,从供给和需求两个方面探讨了可能导致房价变化的因素;其次基于2005年至2015年11年间的实证数据,对M2与房价的关系、M2与土地价格的关系、土地价格与房价的关系进行了检验。研究表明,M2对房价影响显著。具体来说,M2对房地产市场的影响分为两个方面:一方面,随着M2的增加,市场需求增加;另一方面,M2增加导致土地价格上涨,市场供给减少,在供给与需求的共同变动影响下,房价上涨。因此,M2的增加实际上是加剧了房价的上升,不仅使得房地产市场存在泡沫经济的隐患,而且挤压了我国实体经济的资金供给,造成实体经济融资困难。因此,应当合理控制M2的供应量,降低实体经济的融资成本,加快税制改革,促进土地市场健康发展,并拓宽投资理财渠道,从而抑制房地产投资热。
In recent years, the real estate market has gradually entered a prosperous period, and the real estate prices have been growing rapidly. At the same time, the supply of M2 in our country has also risen rapidly. In this paper, a quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis of a combination of methods to try to study M2 affect the price of the conduction mechanism. First of all, on the theoretical dimension, the factors that may lead to the change of housing prices are discussed from two aspects of supply and demand. Secondly, based on the empirical data from 2005 to 2015, the relationship between M2 and house prices, the relationship between M2 and land prices, The relationship between price and price was tested. Research shows that M2 has a significant impact on house prices. Specifically, the impact of M2 on the real estate market is divided into two aspects: on the one hand, the market demand increases with the increase of M2; on the other hand, the increase of M2 leads to the increase of land prices and the reduction of market supply. In the common of supply and demand, Under the influence of changes, house prices rose. Therefore, the increase of M2 actually exacerbated the rise of housing prices, which not only exposed the real estate market to the hidden danger of the bubble economy but also squeezed the supply of the real economy in our country, causing difficulties in financing the real economy. Therefore, we should rationally control the supply of M2, reduce the financing cost of the real economy, speed up the tax reform, promote the healthy development of the land market, and broaden the channels for investment and financing so as to curb the real estate investment boom.