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长期以来,建立在完全理性和信息对称基础之上的贸易保护理论有关贸易保护效果的分析结论,往往与现实结果存在着偏差。本文在理论探讨的前提上引入有限理性约束,考察了认知能力、信息、环境等不确定因素制约下的政府贸易保护政策的决策形成过程,相应地给出了贸易保护效果的决定函数;继之,文章通过三个影响因素的不同组合,在理论上描述了贸易保护政策决策过程中有限理性的可能状态。最后,作为一种结合实际的探讨,文章分析了我国政府在贸易保护政策制定中有可能出现的有限理性约束状态。
For a long time, the conclusion of the analysis on the effect of trade protection based on the theory of trade protection based on the theory of complete rationality and information symmetry tends to deviate from the actual results. This paper introduces bounded rationality constraints on the premise of theoretical research, examines the decision-making process of government trade protection policies under the constraints of cognitive ability, information, environment and other uncertainties, and gives the decision-making function of the trade protection effect accordingly. , The article describes the possible state of bounded rationality in the process of decision-making of trade protection policy theoretically through different combinations of three influencing factors. Finally, as a practical discussion, the article analyzes the bound of bounded rationality that our government may appear in the formulation of trade protection policy.