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[目的]以时间序列分析方法探究江苏省昆山市1981~2014年肺癌死亡率。[方法]1981~2014年肺癌死亡病例来源于基于人群的死因监测,使用平均年度变化百分比(annual change percent,APC)及其95%可信区间(CI)评价1981~2014年肺癌粗亡率与年龄标化死亡率时间趋势;使用时间趋势与自回归模型结合的方法对昆山市1981~2014年肺癌死亡率进行时间序列分析。[结果]肺癌标化死亡率在男女合计(APC=0.9%,95%CI:0.6%~1.2%)、男性(APC=0.5%,95%CI:0.2%~0.8%)和女性(APC=1.5%,95%CI:0.8%~2.2%)人群中呈现上升趋势。时间趋势与自回归模型预测结果显示2015~2024年昆山市肺癌粗死亡率在男性和女性人群中依旧处于上升趋势。[结论]江苏省昆山市肺癌标化死亡率在过去33年间呈现上升趋势,未来10年依旧上升。
[Objective] To investigate the mortality of lung cancer from 1981 to 2014 in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province by time series analysis. [Methods] The deaths of lung cancer from 1981 to 2014 were derived from crowd-based mortality monitoring. The annual change percent (APC) and its 95% confidence interval (CI) Time trend of age-standardized mortality; time-trend regression model combined with the method of Kunshan City from 1981 to 2014 lung cancer mortality by time series analysis. [Results] The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer was significantly higher in men and women (APC = 0.9%, 95% CI: 0.6% ~ 1.2%), male (APC = 0.5%, 95% CI: 0.2% ~ 0.8% 1.5%, 95% CI: 0.8% ~ 2.2%) showed an upward trend in the population. The time trend and autoregressive model predicts that the crude death rate of lung cancer in Kunshan city is still on the rise in both men and women in 2015-2024. [Conclusion] The standardized death rate of lung cancer in Kunshan City, Jiangsu Province has shown an upward trend in the past 33 years and will still increase in the next 10 years.