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在基础养老金实行现收现付式的筹资模式下,年龄结构变动能显著影响基金的收支状况,而年龄结构变动又主要受到生育率和死亡率的影响。本文结合中国现行养老保险筹资和待遇规定,建立了基础养老金的收入与支出模型,通过改变生育率和死亡率来考察人口变动对基础养老金收支平衡的影响。生育率和死亡率变动引起老年抚养比、劳动人口年龄结构、社会平均工资、个人指数化工资等因素发生变化,从而对基础养老金的收支和长期平衡产生影响,其中老年抚养比的变化最大,是导致基础养老金收支缺口出现的主因。
Under the existing pay-as-you-go financing model, the changes in age structure can significantly affect the income and expenditure of the fund, while the changes in age structure are mainly affected by the fertility rate and mortality rate. Based on the current regulations on the financing and treatment of endowment insurance in China, this paper establishes the income and expenditure model of basic pensions and examines the impact of population changes on the balance of basic pensions by changing the fertility rate and mortality rate. Changes in fertility rates and mortality have led to changes in the dependency ratio of the elderly, the age structure of the working population, the average wage of the society and the wage changes of the individual index, which have an impact on the balance of payments and long-term balance of the basic pension. Among them, , Is the main reason for the emergence of the basic pension revenue gap.