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结合新疆吐鲁番市近十年城镇人口的发展变化,从学校数量及规模、学校服务人口和服务半径分析了吐鲁番市2006-2011年学校布局调整实效。运用联合国法预测了吐鲁番市2015年、2020年、2030年城镇化率,并利用城镇化进程中学龄人口转移模型估算出转移的学龄人口,从在校生人数、班级数和教职工数、学校规模三方面预测了城镇教育需求,为新一轮城镇化发展中吐鲁番市学校布局的规划提供了思路。
Combined with the development and changes of urban population in Turpan, Xinjiang in recent ten years, the school layout adjustment effect of Turpan from 2006 to 2011 was analyzed from the number and size of schools, the service population of schools and the service radius. Using the UN law to predict the urbanization rate of Turpan in 2015, 2020 and 2030, and using the model of transition of school-age population in urbanization to estimate the transferred school-age population, from the number of students, number of classes and faculty, school size Three aspects predicted the demand of education in cities and provided ideas for the planning of school layout in Turpan City in the new round of urbanization.