“后短缺时期”:中国转轨经济的过渡态研究——兼谈转轨经济研究方法的改进

• 作 者: 吕炜
• 机 构: 东北财经大学 116025
• 出 处: 财贸经济
• 发表日期: 2002年03期
• 关键词: 转轨经济 过渡态 后短缺时期 部分质变 短缺状态 需求约束 国民经济总体 长期战略方针 基本立足点 研究方法

目前转轨经济研究的分析方法存在缺陷 ,为此应作方法论改进。根据转轨已经走过的进程和转轨经济运行状态的变化 ,通过寻找转轨总过程中经济运行机制和状态发生部分质变的“过渡态”,并以“过渡态”为观察点进行分析预测的中位观察法是可供一试的新方法。中国经济在 1 998年前后进入“过渡态”,即由“短缺时期”进入“后短缺时期”,从而为这一研究提供了实证。

At present, there are flaws in the analytical methods of transitional economy research, and methodological improvements should be made for this purpose. According to the process that the transition has gone through and the changes of the transitional economy, by looking for the “transitional state” of the economic operation mechanism and some qualitative changes in the transitional process, and using the “transitional state” as the observation point, Observations are new ways to try it out. The Chinese economy entered the “transitional state” around the year 1998, that is, from the “shortage period” to the “post-shortage period”, thus providing an empirical study of this study.