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关于证券分析价格预测的方法有很多种,各自的理论思路、方法及预测的准确率各有不同。每个模型在特定的系统条件情形下预测效果不同。业界寄希望通过各种方法的一般性融合来达到提高预测准确率的方式来提高自身的利润率,且在行动中已经付出很大的人力物力财力等代价。本文试图以概率论的知识来论证多种方法的简单综合应用并不能提高预测的准确率。借此机会来向该渠道进军人世提供建设性的建议,以节约和降低他们的成本。另外这个问题不仅仅是经济中的证券预测问题,更是哲学问题,它可以启迪人们在统一系统情形下各种方法的综合并不有利于解决实际遇到的问题。
There are many ways to predict the price of securities analysis, and the respective theoretical ideas, methods and the accuracy of forecasting are different. Each model predicts different results under certain system conditions. The industry hopes that by improving the accuracy of forecasting, we can improve the profit margin through the general integration of various methods and have already paid a great deal of manpower, material resources and financial costs in our operations. This paper attempts to demonstrate that the simple and comprehensive application of multiple methods based on probability theory does not improve the accuracy of prediction. Take this opportunity to provide constructive advice to the advent of this channel in order to save and reduce their costs. In addition, this issue is not only a question of securities forecasting in the economy, but also a philosophical issue. It can enlighten people in integrating the various methods in a unified system and does not help solve the problems actually encountered.