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由于径流的不确定,电力市场下水电企业制定的年发电计划都存在着一定的风险,影响着企业的经济效益。对于水电企业而言,需要对发电计划的风险和利润进行评估,构造兼顾利润最大和风险最小这两个矛盾目标的折衷发电计划。文中针对这一问题进行研究,提出了一种基于入库径流频率计算并计及风险的水电企业年发电计划制定模型,将风险管理中的概率分析方法和群决策理论引入发电计划方案的利润和风险评估中,并给出了求解方法,为解决考虑风险情况下水电企业年发电计划制定问题提供了新的途径。最后以一算例证明了该模型和求解方法的可行性。
Due to the uncertainty of runoff, annual power generation plans formulated by hydropower enterprises in the electricity market all have certain risks and affect the economic benefits of enterprises. For hydropower enterprises, the risks and profits of power generation projects need to be assessed, and an eclectic power generation plan that takes into account the two contradictory goals of maximizing profits and minimizing risks is to be constructed. Aiming at this problem, this paper presents a model for annual power generation planning of hydropower enterprises that calculates and takes risks based on the frequency of incoming runoff, and introduces the probability analysis method and group decision theory in risk management into the profit and Risk assessment, and gives the solution method, which provides a new way to solve the formulation of annual power generation plan for hydropower enterprises considering the risk. Finally, an example is given to demonstrate the feasibility of the model and the solution method.