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根据全国１６０座大中型水库的实际观测资料，对坝前年最高水位的变化特性进行了较系统的分析研究。结果表明：年最高水位为独立随机变量，概率分布多为负偏，可由三参数对数正态表征。参数由概率权重矩法估计。
According to the actual observation data of 160 large and medium-sized reservoirs nationwide, the variation characteristics of the highest water level in the year before the dam were systematically analyzed and studied. The results show that the annual maximum water level is an independent random variable, and the probability distribution is mostly negative and can be characterized by a three-parameter lognormal. The parameters are estimated by the probability weight moment method.