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以煤炭为主的能源消费格局是中国能源消费的现状,且煤炭资源主要分布于其少数几个省份。根据国际经验,资源丰裕区域具有发生“荷兰病”和“资源诅咒”的潜在风险。本文以1999—2011年为样本期间,选取中国典型省份实证分析了煤炭价格波动对煤炭丰裕省份产业结构演变的影响机制。结果显示,煤价波动引发的要素流动效应突出,但支出效应不显著,且对劳动要素价格的影响显著强于资本要素,并对科技创新具有较大的挤出效应。这说明,煤炭价格上涨给中国煤炭丰裕地区带来经济繁荣的同时,却使区域产业结构趋向不合理的以煤炭产业为支撑的单一产业结构演化。
The coal-dominated energy consumption pattern is the status quo of energy consumption in China, with coal resources mainly distributed in a few provinces. According to international experience, a resource-rich region has the potential of causing “Dutch disease” and “resource curse.” This paper, taking the period of 1999-2011 as a sample period, selected the typical provinces in China to empirically analyze the impact of coal price fluctuations on the evolution of industrial structure in the affluent coal provinces. The result shows that the element flow effect caused by coal price fluctuation is prominent, but the expenditure effect is not significant, and the impact on the price of labor factor is significantly stronger than the capital element, which has a larger crowding-out effect on science and technology innovation. This shows that while coal prices bring prosperity to China’s coal-rich areas, the evolution of a single industrial structure supported by the coal industry has made the regional industrial structure unreasonable.