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在IT圈儿里想预测点什么都不那么容易,搞不 好就会成为笑柄。回顾2004年1月本刊《占卜2004》 一文中的种种预测,包括miniPC的走俏、数码单反 相机的红火、彩色激光打印机的快速成长、企业网 格的缓慢发展、安腾服务器生态链的日趋完备、桌 面64位的滞后、Media Center操作系统的举步维艰、 Linux的平稳发展、千兆到桌面的咫尺天涯,这些 预言在2004年已经基本兑现,偏差不大。 看走眼的也有一些:WLAN的火爆已在不言中, 但WAPI被无限期地悬挂起来了;流年不利的Intel推 迟了第二代迅驰平台的发布,现在理解起来似乎并 不难;照片打印机虽然跟着数码相机取得了突破性 的发展,但是并没有取得和数码相机同步的增长, 实际发展速度可能略微滞后;DVD刻录时代也有些 姗姗来迟,似乎CD刻录就已经满足了多数人的需求。 和我们一起占卜的还有PC World 美国同仁,他们立足于美国IT市场未 来几年的变化,比较宏观。我们在兼 顾全球市场变化的同时把重心落在了 中国,重点也仅限于2005年,占卜的 内容更加丰富而翔实。
In the IT circles to predict what the point is not so easy, or will become a joke. Reviewing the various predictions made in the January 2004 issue of “The Fortune 2004”, including the popularity of miniPC, the dazzling digital SLR cameras, the rapid growth of color laser printers, the slow growth of enterprise grids, and the increasingly complete Itanium server ecosystem , Desktop 64 lags behind, Media Center operating system difficult, Linux’s steady development, gigabit to the desktop of the world, these predictions in 2004 has been basically honored, with little deviation. There are some mistakes: Wi-Fi WLAN has been silent, but WAPI is hung up indefinitely; unfavorable Intel delaying the release of the second generation of Centrino platform, it now seems not difficult to understand; photo printer although With the digital camera made a breakthrough development, but did not get synchronized with the growth of digital cameras, the actual pace of development may be slightly lagging behind; DVD recording time is also a bit late, it seems that CD burning has to meet the needs of the majority. Also divination with us PC PC colleagues in the United States, who based on the United States IT market changes in the next few years, more macro. While focusing on changes in the global market, we have shifted our focus to China. The focus is also limited to 2005, and fortune-telling contents are richer and more informative.