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过去30余年里,中国经济以年均两位数的增速,创造了一个所谓的“中国奇迹”。不过从近年新一轮景气增长呈现特点看,我们可能要告别长期习以为常的两位数经济增长率。这首先源自经济供给面因素逐步演变的内在规律要求。人口数据显示,中国劳动力数量增长目前这两年经历最高点,借助劳动力数量增长推动经济扩张的动能作用将释放殆尽,对潜在供给增长速度产生制约作用。
In the past 30 years or so, the Chinese economy has created a so-called “Chinese miracle” with double-digit average annual growth rates. However, in the light of the new round of economic growth in recent years, we may well say goodbye to the long-standing double-digit economic growth rate. This first comes from the inherent law of gradual evolution of economic supply-side factors. Population data show that the growth of labor force in China is experiencing the highest point in these two years and the kinetic function of boosting economic expansion through the growth of the labor force will be exhausted and restricting the growth rate of the potential supply.