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影响安塞实验区水土保持经济效益的主要因素是人口数量、副业收入、水土保持状况和农林牧业用地面积等。用灰色模型GM(1,1)的预测结果说明。实验区的每人平均总产值在1986—2001年将以4.2%的年增长率稳步发展;关联度的分析结果指出,每人平均总产值同生产力、副业收入、林业用地面积、水土保持状况和牧业用地面积成正相关,同农业用地面积成负相关。要使实验区的总产值或每人平均总产值达到最大,必须增加生产力和提高人口素质,大力发展副业,使林业用地面积占可用地面积的百分数不少于30%,农地占可用地面积的25%左右,使农林牧副等生产结构趋于合理化。
The main factors that affect the economic benefits of soil and water conservation in Ansai Experimental Zone are the population, sideline income, soil and water conservation conditions, land for agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and so on. The gray GM (1,1) prediction results are illustrated. The average gross output value of each person in the experimental zone will grow steadily at an annual rate of 4.2% during 1986-2001. The analysis of the correlation indicates that the average per capita output value per capita is in line with productivity, sideline income, forestry land use, soil and water conservation and Animal husbandry land area is positively related to the area of agricultural land is negatively correlated. In order to maximize the total output value of the experimental area or the average gross output per person, we must increase productivity and improve the quality of the population. We should vigorously develop sideline occupations so that the percentage of land used for forestry shall not be less than 30% of the available area, and the area of usable agricultural land Of the 25%, so that the production structure of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and other side tend to rationalize.