论文部分内容阅读
空间分布函数将地震区、带的地震活动性参数按震级档分配到带内各潜在震源区,它的确定是综合概率地震危险性分析方法的关键性技术之一,其结果将直接影响所计算场点的地震危险性分析结果.然而,空间分布函数的确定由于地震样本的严重缺失难以统计得到,而实际工作中采用的评判因子太复杂、不独立等,使得到的空间分布函数缺乏可靠性.本文以渤海地震构造区为例,充分利用了该区近几十年来新建海洋石油平台工程获得的地质资料和历史疑难地震参数校核获得的地震活动资料,采用该区各潜在震源区面积、地震构造、地震活动度、中长期预报和强震复发间隔与构造空段五个因子,加权综合得到渤海地震构造区的空间分布函数,反映了该区地震活动的时空不均匀性,为概率危险性分析提供了计算参数.同时,本文运用综合概率地震危险性分析方法,由新的空间分布函数计算得到渤海地震构造区50年超越概率10%的海底泥面峰值加速度区划图,反映出研究区从<0.05~0.20 g跨越五区,呈现西高东低的趋势,区域东部位于0.20 g(Ⅷ度区),西部位于<0.05 g(<Ⅵ度区)范围内,该区划结果可供该地区海洋石油平台等工程地震危险性分析研究时参考,对地震区划和工程地震安全性评价均有意义.
The spatial distribution function distributes the seismicity parameters of the seismic zone and belt into the potential seismic zones in the belt according to the magnitude class. Its determination is one of the key technologies in the method of comprehensive probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. The result will directly affect the calculated However, the determination of the spatial distribution function is difficult to obtain due to the serious lack of seismic samples, but the evaluation factors used in the actual work are too complex and not independent, which makes the obtained spatial distribution function lack of reliability Taking the Bohai Sea seismic tectonic area as an example, this paper makes full use of the seismic activity data obtained from the geological data and historical difficult seismic parameter verification obtained from the new offshore oil platform project of this area in recent decades. By using the area of each potential source area, Seismic structure, seismic activity, long-term and medium-long term prediction and strong earthquake recurrence interval and structural empty section of the five factors, the weighted sum of the spatial distribution function of the Bohai Sea seismic structure reflects the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of seismic activity for the probability of danger The qualitative analysis provides the calculation parameters.At the same time, by using the integrated probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method, Distribution function The zonal map of the peak acceleration of the muddy surface in the Bohai Sea area has been obtained by calculating the 50% probability of surpassing the 50% probability of the Bohai Sea earthquake. It shows that the study area crosses over five districts from <0.05-0.20 g, showing a trend of high in the west and east and low in the east, Ⅷ degree zone), and the west zone is within the range of <0.05 g (<Ⅵ degree zone). The result of this division can be used as a reference for the analysis of seismic risk of offshore oil platforms in the area. For the safety evaluation of earthquake zoning and engineering earthquake, significance.