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预期对资本市场的影响,是上个世纪80年代以来西方资本市场研究的热点问题。国外学者在“市场是有效的”、“投资者是完全理性的”假设前提下建立了一系列的预期模型,形成了理性预期学派的资本市场预期理论。这一理论是在发达的货币信用体系和完善的资本市场条件下产生的。我国的情况与之相反,资本市场的发展处于由不成熟向规范的转型时期。如何将西方资本市场预期理论运用于中国资本市场预期问题的研究,存在一个本土化、中国化的问题。正是如此,研究中国的货币信用体系不发达、资本市场发展时间短的预期问题是非常必要的。江世银的博士后研究报告《中国资本市场预期问题研究》经过修改,以专著《中国资本市场预期》(北京·商务印书馆2005年
The expected impact on the capital market is a hot issue in western capital market research since the 1980s. Foreign scholars have established a series of expected models under the premise of “the market is effective” and “investors are completely rational”, forming the expected market capitalization theory of rational expectations school. This theory was developed under the well-developed monetary credit system and a sound capital market. In contrast, the development of the capital market is in an era of transition from immatureness to norms. How to apply the expected theory of western capital markets to the research on the expected problems in China’s capital market, there is a problem of localization and sinicization. That is why it is very necessary to study the expected problems of China’s underdeveloped monetary credit system and the short development time of capital markets. Jiang Shiyin’s postdoctoral research report “China’s Capital Market Expectations Study” was revised to the monograph “China’s capital market is expected” (Beijing · Commercial Press 2005