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本文通过寻找历史上相似的经济周期,并探究什么是经济复苏的充要条件后认为,当前经济复苏的必要条件基本满足,但是经济持续复苏的充分条件尚未满足,应高度关注生产资料价格变化及其引发的一系列生产经营活动变化。通过寻找历史上与当前相似的阶段发现,尽管供给约束带来的库存去化(经济复苏的必要条件)有利于经济短期企稳,但这种企稳未必是可持续的。在缺乏有效需求动能的情况下,生产资料价格一旦出现下降,企业利润将随之下滑,
After looking for similar historical economic cycles and exploring what is the necessary and sufficient condition of economic recovery, we think that the necessary conditions for economic recovery are basically satisfied. However, the sufficient conditions for sustained economic recovery have not yet been met. We should pay close attention to the price changes of the means of production and It triggered a series of changes in production and business activities. By looking for a historically similar phase, we found that although stock de-stocking due to supply constraints (a necessary condition for economic recovery) is conducive to short-term economic stabilization, such stabilization may not be sustainable. In the absence of effective demand kinetic energy, once the prices of means of production have declined, corporate profits will fall accordingly,