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运用水库常规调度和优化调度模型,分别确定水库调度策略,从水电站发电和下游生态需水的可靠性、可恢复性、脆弱性和防洪调度权转移风险出发,建立基于综合利用水库调度模型的调度性能风险评价指标体系。以新安江水库调度为例,对1960—2009年旬径流系列的常规与优化调度结果进行风险评价,结果表明:水库优化调度方法比常规调度方法的发电效益、可靠性、可恢复性更高,但其发电脆弱性和防洪调度权转移风险更高。水库调度性能指标全面地评价了不同调度方法对水库调度结果的影响,该研究为综合利用水库在防洪安全、供水安全、生态与环境安全等方面的决策管理提供了一种新的评价思路。
Based on the conventional and optimal dispatching model of reservoirs, the reservoir dispatching strategies are respectively determined. Based on the reliability, recoverability and vulnerability of hydropower generation and the downstream ecological water demand, a scheduling model based on comprehensive utilization of reservoir dispatching model is established Performance risk assessment index system. Taking the Xinanjiang reservoir dispatch as an example, the routine and optimal dispatch results of runoff series from 1960 to 2009 are evaluated. The results show that the optimal dispatching method of reservoir is more efficient, reliable and recoverable than the conventional dispatching method, However, its power generation vulnerability and flood control rights transfer risk is higher. The performance indicators of reservoirs have comprehensively evaluated the impact of different scheduling methods on the results of reservoir operation. This study provides a new evaluation method for comprehensive utilization of reservoirs in decision-making management in flood control safety, water supply safety, ecology and environmental safety.