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《中国保险业发展“十二五”规划纲要》提出“到2015年,全国保险保费收入争取达到3万亿元”。保费收入是衡量保险业发展的一个重要指标,也是保险业发展状况的宏观反映,对保费收入目标实现研究对于保险业科学发展具有意义。本文应用holt-winters乘法模型基于1999-2012年月度保费收入数据预测了2015年度保费收入,模型显示:2015年预测保费收入仅为19485.8412亿元,远低于规划目标;结合当前状况,分析了影响目标实现的四个核心因素,并结合相关因素,分别提出了促进目标顺利实现的相关建议。
“China’s Insurance Industry Development” “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” proposed “By 2015, the national insurance premium income will reach 3 trillion yuan.” Premium income is a measure of the development of the insurance industry is an important indicator, but also a macro reflection of the development of the insurance industry, research on the goal of premium income for the scientific development of the insurance industry is of great significance. In this paper, the holt-winters multiplication model is used to predict the 2015 premium income based on monthly premium income data from 1999 to 2012. The model shows that the estimated premium income in 2015 is only 1948.58412 billion yuan, which is far below the planning target. According to the current situation, the impact is analyzed The four core factors of achieving the goal and the related factors, put forward some suggestions to promote the smooth realization of the goal.