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教材利润严重下降后,全国依靠教材生存的数百家出版社将向一般图书进行战略转型,这必将扩大一般图书供应,使目前已经供大于求的一般图书出现严重的供求失衡。预测表明,2006年中国出版业库存图书超过560亿,2010年将超过1000亿,即使这些库存全部能够上架,也得数年时间才能销完。库存和报废的高速增长,以及养活员工的资金需求,将考验多数出版社的现金流。
After the profits of teaching materials have seriously dropped, hundreds of publishing houses that rely on teaching materials all over the country will make strategic changes to the general books. This will surely widen the supply of general books and cause a serious imbalance between supply and demand for general books that have been oversupplied. Projections show that in 2006, there were more than 56 billion books in stock in the publishing industry in China and more than 100 billion in 2010, even though all of these stocks could be put on the shelves before they could be sold out within a few years. The rapid growth in inventories and scraps, as well as the funding needs of workers, will test the cash flow of most publishers.