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为准确预测即将发生的洪水过程,最大限度地减少灾害损失,采用小花间洪水预报模型和经验方法分别对伊河流域的陆浑水库入库径流过程进行了模拟,并将模拟结果与实测流量过程进行了对比分析。结果表明,两种方法模拟结果精度相差不大,均能满足预报精度要求,但小花间洪水预报模型模拟结果整体效果较好,尤其是洪水过程与实测过程比较吻合;经验方法模拟结果稍差,但误差在可接受范围内。两种方法均具有一定实用性,建议两种方法联合运用,将小花间洪水预报模型的洪水预报结果作为指导水库防洪调度的主要依据,经验方法的预报结果作为参考。
In order to accurately forecast the impending flood process and minimize the disaster losses, the interflow flow forecasting model and empirical method were used to simulate the runoff of Lu Hun Reservoir in the Yi River Basin. The simulation results were compared with the measured flow process Conducted a comparative analysis. The results show that the accuracy of the simulation results of the two methods are not much different, which can meet the requirements of forecast accuracy. However, the simulation result of the flood forecast model in the floret is better, especially the flood process is in good agreement with the actual measurement process. But the error is within the acceptable range. Both methods have some practicality. It is suggested that the combination of the two methods should be used as the main basis to guide the flood control and dispatching of reservoirs. The forecast results of empirical methods are taken as reference.