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目的 了解日平均气温对济宁市麻疹发病的影响,并对其作用强度及作用特点进行评估.方法 通过中国疾病预防控制中心《疾病监测信息报告管理系统》和中国气象科学数据共享服务网分别获得济宁市2009～2011年麻疹每日发病资料和同时期气象资料;采用双向时间分层病例交叉设计的条件Logistic回归分析,计算日平均气温暴露对每日麻疹发病作用的OR值.结果 济宁市2009～2011年上报麻疹病例441例,发病有明显的季节性,冬春季高发,1～5月发病例数最多,共340例,占77. 10％.发病以≤3岁儿童为主,发病266例,占60.32％;4～11和≥12岁人群分别占7.48％和32.20％.日平均气温对济宁市人群麻疹发病作用以暴露当日最大,OR值为1.03(95％ CI:0.98～1. 07);对≥12岁的人群,暴露当日OR值最大,为1.08(95％ CI:0.99～1. 16);对4～11岁人群最大OR值为1. 12(95％ CI: 0.98～ 1. 26),0～3岁人群最大OR值为1. 06(95％ CI:1. 01～1. 10),均出现于暴露第4天.结论 济宁市麻疹发病季节性明显,冬春季高发,随着日平均气温升高,易感人群发病风险增大,气温对麻疹发病表现为短期急性效应.“,”Objective To understand the impact of daily average temperature on the incidence of measles in Jining city, and evaluate the intensity and characteristics of the effect of temperature. Methods The daily incidence data of measles in Jining city, 2009-2011 were obtained from the disease monitoring information report administrative system of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. The daily meteorological data were obtained from China Meteorological Data Service Center. The conditional logistic regression analysis for two-way time-stratified case crossover design was used to calculate the OR value of daily average temperature exposure to the daily incidence of measles. Results The reported measles cases were 441 in Jining city, 2009 to 2011. The incidence of measles showed remarkable seasonality, with peaks in winter and spring. 340 (77. 10％) most measles cases were reported from January to May. The reported measles cases were 266 (60. 32％) in children aged 3 years and under, accounting for 7. 48％ and 32. 20％ in people aged 4-11 years and 12 years and over respectively. The effect of daily average temperature on the incidence of measles was the highest on the day of exposure, and the OR value was 1. 03 (95％ CI 0. 98-1. 07). The maximum OR value for the people aged 12 years and over was 1. 08 (95％ CI 0. 99-1. 16), while it was 1. 12 (95％ CI 0. 98-1. 26) and 1. 06 (95％ CI 1. 01-1. 10) for those aged 4-11 years and aged 0-3 years respectively on the fourth day after exposure. Conclusion The incidence of measles in Jining city shows remarkable seasonality, with peaks in winter and spring. With the increase of daily average temperature, the risk of measles increases among susceptible population. The effect of temperature on measles is short-term and a cute.