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根据因子分析法和聚类分析法对经济发展与对外贸易的综合评价表明,中国大陆地区对外贸易水平与经济发展水平存在地区差异。以中国大陆1985—2006年间28省份的人均GDP、进出口总额和出口总额三者的变异系数为样本空间进行的VECM模型检验发现,地区外贸差异与经济差距间存在长期均衡关系,对外贸易差异是地区差距的格兰杰成因。总的来说,对外贸易差异主要通过要素收益变化与要素流动制约性、技术溢出与要素收益变化、要素积累与要素收益变化、制度创新与制度变迁4个方面对地区差距的变化产生影响。
The comprehensive evaluation of economic development and foreign trade based on factor analysis and cluster analysis shows that there are regional differences in the level of foreign trade and economic development in mainland China. Based on the VECM model test of the coefficient of variation of the per capita GDP, total imports and exports and total value of exports in 28 provinces in Mainland China during 1985-2006, we found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between foreign trade disparity and economic disparity in the region, and the difference in foreign trade is Granger causes of regional disparity. In general, the differences in foreign trade mainly affect the changes in regional disparities from four aspects: factor income changes and factor mobility constraints, technology spillovers and factor income changes, factor accumulation and factor income changes, system innovation and institutional changes.