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黄河山东段位于黄河下游,是典型的“地上悬河”。以黄河山东段沿线区域为研究区,从致灾因子、孕灾环境的自然属性和承灾体的社会属性两方面出发,选取降水、地形、水系、植被作为洪灾危险性评估因子,人口密度、GDP密度、单位面积粮食产量、交通密度作为洪灾易损性评估因子,利用GIS技术和层次分析法,获得了5个级别的洪灾风险等级分布图。结果表明,低风险区占11%,较低风险区占47%,中等风险区占31%,较高风险区占7%,高风险区占4%。在67个县市区中,高风险等级区面积占县市区百分比大于50%的有3个;较高风险等级区有6个;低风险等级区面积占县市区百分比大于90%的有6个。以山东黄河“96·8”洪水的淹没范围和受灾损失程度对评估结果进行验证,认为与实际情况较吻合,结果合理。
The Yellow River Shandong section is located in the lower reaches of the Yellow River, is a typical “hanging river on the ground.” Taking the area along the Yellow River in Shandong Province as the research area, from the aspects of the disaster-causing factors, the natural properties of the pregnant environment and the social properties of the disaster-bearing body, precipitation, topography, water system and vegetation were selected as flood risk assessment factors, population density, GDP density, grain yield per unit area, and traffic density as flood vulnerability assessment factors. By using GIS and AHP, five levels of flood risk rating maps were obtained. The results show that low risk area accounts for 11%, low risk area 47%, medium risk area 31%, high risk area 7% and high risk area 4%. In 67 counties and cities, the area with high-risk areas accounted for more than 50% of the counties and cities, with 3; 6 with high-risk areas; and those with low-risk areas accounting for more than 90% of the districts and counties 6 The results of the assessment were verified by the inundation scope of the flood of “96.8%” in Shandong Yellow River and the degree of damage caused by the disaster. The results are in good agreement with the actual situation and the results are reasonable.