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地点:英格兰和威尔士。 目的:定量研究英格兰和威尔士在1953-1990年间,菌苗接种、化疗及预防性治疗对减少结核发病的贡献。 设计:为了估算接种前的参数,根据1913-1939年的登记资料,拟合了结核病传播的房室模型。化疗及预防性治疗率的最优估值则是利用1953-1990年的登记资料拟合的模型推算的。还利用了公布的接种率。 主要的结果指标:所减少的肺结核病例数。 结果:在1953-1990年间,由于应用预防性治疗、菌苗接种和化疗而使呼吸系结核病减少的数量分别为288318,57085和206996。 结论:在诸项干预中,预防性治疗对传播的影响最大。由于前期痰菌阳性,传染期长,容易发病。
Location: England and Wales. Objective: To quantitatively study the contribution of vaccination, chemotherapy and prophylactic treatment to reduce the incidence of tuberculosis in England and Wales from 1953 to 1990. Design: In order to estimate pre-vaccination parameters, a room model of tuberculosis transmission was fitted based on registration data from 1913-1939. The best estimate of the rate of chemotherapy and prophylactic treatment is based on a model fitted from the registration data of 1953-1990. The published vaccination rates are also used. Key outcome indicators: Number of tuberculosis cases reduced. RESULTS: Between 1953 and 1990, the number of respiratory tuberculosis reductions was 288318, 57085 and 206996, respectively, due to the use of prophylactic treatment, vaccination and chemotherapy. Conclusions: Prophylactic treatment has the greatest impact on transmission among interventions. Due to pre-sputum positive, long duration of infection, prone to disease.