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基于中国1983-2011年诉讼量与国内生产总值的相关数据,建立灰色关联度模型,对诉讼量与经济增长之间的关联度进行了测算.研究发现,诉讼量与经济增长之间存在着较高的关联度,但不同类别案件的诉讼量与经济增长的关联度有所差异.在此基础上,建立向量自回归模型,运用协整关系检验、格兰杰因果关系分析、脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法对诉讼量与经济增长的动态关系进行实证研究.结果显示,人民法院审理一审民事案件收案数和人民法院审理一审行政案件收案数均与经济增长之间存在着长期的均衡关系,经济增长是一审民事案件收案数的Grange原因,其对人民法院审理一审民事案件收案数产生正向效应.民事诉讼案件数量的增多在一定程度体现了社会经济的发展、公民维权意识的增强、法律体系的逐渐完善以及国家法治化程度的提高.
Based on the data of litigation volume and GDP from 1983 to 2011 in China, a gray relational degree model was established and the correlation between litigation volume and economic growth was calculated.It was found that there was a relationship between litigation volume and economic growth But there are differences between the litigation volume and the economic growth in different types of cases.On this basis, we establish a vector autoregressive model, using cointegration test, Granger causality analysis, impulse response function Empirical analysis of the dynamic relationship between litigation volume and economic growth.The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium between the number of cases accepted by the people’s courts for first instance civil cases and the number of cases accepted by the people’s courts for first instance administrative cases and the economic growth Relationship and economic growth are the Grange causes of the number of first instance civil cases, which have a positive effect on the number of cases accepted by the people’s courts for first instance civil cases.The increase of the number of civil lawsuits reflects to some extent the development of social economy and the awareness of citizens’ rights protection The gradual improvement of the legal system and the improvement of the legal status of the state.